04.08.202111:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Iran's return to the oil market is taking much longer than expected

Exchange Rates 04.08.2021 analysis

Iran's return to the oil market is taking much longer than expected. It was further complicated by the recent attacks near the Gulf of Oman last week, as US, Israel and UK blamed Tehran for it.

In addition, negotiations were held up by the change of presidency in Tehran. And it seems that even if the allies decide to abandon a military response, there is little chance that US will ease sanctions.

Discussions over the 2015 nuclear deal are also deadlocked, but diplomats are expecting Iran to resume talks again, led by new President Ebrahim Raisi.

Restoring the deal is very important to Iran because it is a key in increasing oil production.

Oil is currently trading at $ 70.

Exchange Rates 04.08.2021 analysis

Before resuming talks, Raisi and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are discussing whether Iran needs assurance that the current US administration will not withdraw from any agreement as Trump did. Also, Iran insists on the lifting of sanctions in all areas: shipping, banking, energy exports.

Washington is wary of these demands, not to mention there is another stumbling block - the JCPOA or the joint comprehensive plan of action to end the treaty, which was designed to restrict Iran's nuclear activities so that it would take a full year to build a bomb. Some US officials believe that over the past three years, Iranian scientists have made enough progress to create atomic weapons within a few months.

In any case, Iran and the United States have expressed desire to continue negotiations. Washington sees the deal as a way to help stabilize the Middle East, while Iran wants to take this opportunity to remove the sanctions that hit its economy.

Most likely, an agreement will be reached by September. If that happens, Iran will be able to raise oil production by 1 million bpd.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Andrey Shevchenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021
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